Mary G Krauland

Contributions to Public Health

I am a Research Assistant Professor in the Department of Health Policy and Management and a member of the Public Health Dynamics Laboratory (PHDL) in the School of Public Health at the University of Pittsburgh. My background is a combination of biology, computer science and epidemiology. Since 2013, I have worked with the modeling and simulation platform FRED (Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics) developed by PHDL. FRED is an agent-based modeling system, developed in the C++ programming language. It has been used to model diverse scenarios, such as infectious diseases, impact of mitigation strategies, and responses to emergency situations. As both a software developer and an epidemiologist, I provide a unique perspective on the development and use of complex software to model population biology.

I have worked on a variety of FRED projects, including the addition of long-term demographic dynamics, modification of the travel module in FRED, modeling the dynamics of the opioid epidemic, impact of behavior on vaccination dynamics and population-level income changes over time. I have also contributed to the ongoing development of a sexual transmission network model for HIV and to the development and publication of the HAZEL model, which estimated impact of interventions on deficits in health care resources on Long Island after Hurricane Sandy.

Recent projects include: 

• Modeled cardiovascular disease risk and correlation of risk factors using the FRED population
  • Krauland MG, Frankeny RJ, Lewis J, Brink L, Hulsey EG, Roberts MS, Hacker KA. Development of a Synthetic Population Model for Assessing Excess Risk for Cardiovascular Disease Death. JAMA Netw Open. 2020 Sep 1;3(9):e2015047. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.15047. PMID: 32870312; PMCID: PMC7489828.
• Modeled measles vaccination
  • Sinclair DR, Grefenstette JJ, Krauland MG, Galloway DD, Frankeny RJ, Travis C, Burke DS, Roberts MS. Forecasted Size of Measles Outbreaks Associated With Vaccination Exemptions for Schoolchildren. JAMA Netw Open. 2019 Aug 2;2(8):e199768. doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.9768. PMID: 31433482; PMCID: PMC6707017.
• Modeled addiction to drups and e-cigarettes
  • Lönn SL, Krauland MG, Fagan AA, Sundquist K, Roberts MS, Kendler KS. The Impact of the Good Behavior Game on Risk for Drug Use Disorder in an Agent-Based Model of Southern Sweden. J Stud Alcohol Drugs. 2023 Nov;84(6):863-873. doi: 10.15288/jsad.22-00413. Epub 2023 Aug 30. PMID: 37650838; PMCID: PMC10765974.
  • Chu KH, Shensa A, Colditz JB, Sidani JE, Hoffman BL, Sinclair D, Krauland MG, Primack BA. Integrating Social Dynamics Into Modeling Cigarette and E-Cigarette Use. Health Educ Behav. 2020 Apr;47(2):191-201. doi: 10.1177/1090198119876242. Epub 2020 Feb 24. PMID: 32090652; PMCID: PMC7256966.
• Modeled influenza, incorporating vaccination schemes and varied efficacy and circulation of multiple variants
  • Krauland MG, Zimmerman RK, Williams KV, Raviotta JM, Harrison LH, Williams JV, Roberts MS. Agent-based model of the impact of higher influenza vaccine efficacy on seasonal influenza burden. Vaccine X. 2023 Apr;13:100249. doi: 10.1016/j.jvacx.2022.100249. Epub 2022 Dec 15. PMID: 36536801; PMCID: PMC9753457.
  • Krauland MG, Galloway DD, Raviotta JM, Zimmerman RK, Roberts MS. Impact of Low Rates of Influenza on Next-Season Influenza Infections. Am J Prev Med. 2022 Apr;62(4):503-510. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2021.11.007. Epub 2022 Feb 24. PMID: 35305778; PMCID: PMC8866158.
• Developed and calibrated a retrospective COVID-19 model as an after-action evaluation of Pennsylvania mitigation strategies for the Pennsylvania Department of Health
  • Krauland MG, Roberts MS. Modeling the Impact of COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies in Pennsylvania, USA. MDM Policy Pract. 2024 Jun 20;9(1):23814683241260744. doi: 10.1177/23814683241260744. PMID: 38911124; PMCID: PMC11191394.